Orioles Open Four-Game Road Series Against Red-Hot Rays
The Baltimore Orioles head to St. Petersburg for one of their toughest series of August when they open a four-game set against the American League East-leading Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night at Tropicana Field.
Baltimore enters the series at 58-63, while Tampa Bay has surged to 74-46 and owns the best record in the AL East. The Orioles sit 16.5 games behind the Rays in the division entering Friday. Tampa Bay has also been dominant at Tropicana Field, posting a 41-18 home record, while Baltimore is 26-33 away from Camden Yards.
The Orioles are catching Tampa Bay at perhaps the worst possible time.
The Rays have won nine consecutive games and are 9-1 over their past 10. Tampa Bay has hit .294 during that stretch while outscoring opponents by 23 runs. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 4-6 over its past 10 while hitting .231 and has been outscored by nine runs.
That does not mean the Orioles have been overwhelmed by Tampa Bay this season. In fact, Baltimore and Tampa Bay have split their first six meetings at three wins apiece. The Rays took the first two games of their May series before Baltimore responded by winning three of the next four.
This four-game set gives the Orioles an opportunity to slow down the hottest team in baseball while showing that the reshaped Baltimore roster can compete with one of the American League’s top clubs.
Orioles vs. Rays Series Schedule
Friday, Aug. 14 — 7:10 p.m.
Kyle Bradish vs. Steven Matz
Saturday, Aug. 15 — 6:10 p.m.
Trevor Rogers vs. Ian Seymour
Sunday, Aug. 16 — 12:15 p.m.
Brandon Young vs. Freddy Peralta
Monday, Aug. 17 — 6:05 p.m.
Shane Baz vs. Nick Martinez
All four games will be played at Tropicana Field.
Game 1: Kyle Bradish vs. Steven Matz
The Orioles appear to have their biggest starting-pitching advantage of the series in Friday’s opener.
Bradish enters at 7-11 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 121 strikeouts over 127 innings. The record does not properly reflect how well Bradish has pitched for much of the season. He recently became the fastest pitcher in Orioles history to reach 500 career strikeouts, accomplishing the feat in his 90th career game.
Tampa Bay counters with left-hander Steven Matz, who is 5-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 62 2/3 innings. He has struck out 48 while allowing 12 home runs.
This is a game Baltimore needs to attack early.
Matz’s ERA gives the Orioles an opportunity to put Bradish on the mound with a lead rather than asking him to pitch a near-perfect game against Tampa Bay’s dangerous offense.
Game 2: Trevor Rogers vs. Ian Seymour
Saturday provides an intriguing all-left-handed matchup.
Trevor Rogers enters at 7-8 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 119 2/3 innings. He has struck out 102 and walked 34 while surrendering 12 home runs.
Tampa Bay will start Ian Seymour, who has been one of the Rays’ better starters. Seymour is 9-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has allowed only 72 hits in 90 1/3 innings while striking out 106.
Seymour’s strikeout production could create problems for Baltimore if the Orioles expand the strike zone. Rogers, meanwhile, will have to deal with a Tampa Bay lineup that has been getting production throughout the order.
Game 3: Brandon Young vs. Freddy Peralta
Sunday’s matchup could be particularly interesting for Baltimore.
Brandon Young has been one of the better developments in the Orioles rotation this season. He enters at 9-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 113 2/3 innings.
Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, who enters at 5-9 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 123 1/3 innings.
The Rays acquired Peralta shortly before the trade deadline, and he has quickly been impressed by his new club. MLB.com reported earlier this week that Peralta had seen nothing but wins since being activated by Tampa Bay on Aug. 3.
Despite Peralta’s reputation and strikeout ability, his season numbers suggest Baltimore should have opportunities.
Young keeping the game close could give the Orioles a chance to take advantage.
Game 4: Shane Baz vs. Nick Martinez
Monday’s finale appears to present the most difficult matchup of the series for Baltimore.
Shane Baz is scheduled to start for the Orioles and enters at 4-12 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across 139 1/3 innings.
Tampa Bay counters with Nick Martinez, who has been excellent. Martinez enters 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 138 innings.
If those starters remain in place, Baltimore will likely have to manufacture runs against Martinez rather than waiting for a big inning.
Tampa Bay’s Offense Is Rolling
The Rays are not necessarily overpowering opponents exclusively with home runs.
Tampa Bay enters the series hitting .261 with a .331 on-base percentage and .408 slugging percentage. The Rays have scored 549 runs while hitting 128 home runs. Baltimore has scored 543 runs with 143 homers but owns only a .235 team batting average.
The difference becomes even more noticeable on the pitching side.
Tampa Bay carries a 3.70 team ERA and 1.14 WHIP, compared with Baltimore’s 4.24 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Opponents are hitting only .229 against Rays pitching.
The player Baltimore must be especially careful with is Junior Caminero.
Caminero enters the series hitting .279 with 35 home runs and 77 RBI, leading Tampa Bay in both homers and RBI. His .553 slugging percentage also leads the club.
Speedster Chandler Simpson brings an entirely different problem. Simpson is hitting .307, and his ability to put the ball in play and create pressure with his legs gives Tampa Bay another dimension. He recently produced a four-hit performance after moving into the No. 3 spot in Kevin Cash’s lineup.
Pete Alonso Remains the Centerpiece of Baltimore’s Lineup
For the Orioles, much of the offensive responsibility continues to fall on Pete Alonso.
Alonso enters the series hitting .259 with 26 home runs and 77 RBI. He also owns a .353 on-base percentage and .480 slugging percentage.
Alonso recently delivered his first multi-homer performance as an Oriole during Baltimore’s win over Texas, another example of why Baltimore committed five years and $155 million to him during the offseason.
Tyler O’Neill has also been producing lately. O’Neill is 8-for-29 with three home runs over his previous 10 games entering the series.
Baltimore will need more than Alonso and O’Neill, however.
A lineup facing four quality starters cannot afford extended stretches without traffic on the bases. The Orioles’ .320 team on-base percentage ranks among the better marks in the American League despite the low team batting average.
That ability to draw walks and reach base could become especially important against Tampa Bay.
Injuries Continue to Shape Baltimore’s Roster
The Orioles remain without several important players.
Samuel Basallo is on the 10-day injured list with a shoulder injury, while Jordan Westburg remains on the 60-day IL following his UCL injury. Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan Helsley, Felix Bautista, Zach Eflin and Keegan Akin are also among Baltimore’s players currently on the injured list.
The bullpen absences are particularly significant against a Rays club that has repeatedly found ways to win games late.
Tampa Bay has injuries of its own, including Griffin Jax, Shane McClanahan and several relievers. Jax recently landed on the injured list with elbow discomfort.
Baltimore Cannot Let Tampa Bay Get Rolling Early
One of the biggest keys to this series will be preventing Tampa Bay from creating momentum.
The Rays have shown during their nine-game winning streak how quickly games can get away from opponents.
Tampa Bay scored eight runs in the eighth inning of its Aug. 11 victory over the Athletics, then followed that by pounding six home runs in a 12-4 win the following night. Taylor Walls, who had gone more than a year without homering, hit two home runs in that game alone.
That is what makes this Rays club dangerous.
Caminero can beat a team with power. Simpson can create havoc with contact and speed. Tampa Bay’s lineup is deep enough that even the bottom of the order can change a game.
Baltimore’s starters need to limit walks and keep Tampa Bay from turning one baserunner into a multi-run inning.
Orioles Have Already Proven They Can Beat Tampa Bay
The Orioles should not enter Tropicana Field intimidated by Tampa Bay’s record.
The season series is 3-3, and Baltimore has already scored nine, six and 11 runs in victories over the Rays this year.
There is a considerable difference between Tampa Bay’s current form and the club Baltimore saw in May, but there is also evidence that the Orioles’ offense can produce against this pitching staff.
The challenge will be doing it consistently for four days.
MSB Take
This is exactly the type of series the Orioles should want at this point in the season.
Baltimore is no longer realistically chasing Tampa Bay for the AL East lead, but the Orioles still have plenty to evaluate following a dramatic trade deadline that changed the direction of the roster. Going into Tropicana Field against a 74-win Rays team riding a nine-game winning streak provides a great measuring stick.
The first and third games look like Baltimore’s best opportunities. Bradish gives the Orioles a significant advantage over Matz on Friday, while Young’s 3.33 ERA makes Sunday’s game against Peralta very winnable.
Saturday is closer to a toss-up. Monday heavily favors Tampa Bay on paper with Martinez carrying a 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA.
The goal should be at least a split.
Winning three of four would be an impressive statement, especially considering Tampa Bay’s home dominance and current winning streak. Losing three or four would reinforce the gap that still exists between Baltimore and the top of the American League.
One thing is certain: this will not be an easy weekend.
Tampa Bay enters as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Baltimore has four games to cool the Rays off.
