Orioles Return Home for Crucial Three-Game Series Against Yankees
The Baltimore Orioles just proved they can hang with the best team in the American League. Now they have to do it again against another division rival with the postseason race tightening by the day.
Baltimore opens a three-game series against the New York Yankees Tuesday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. All three games are scheduled for 6:35 p.m., with the Orioles entering Tuesday at 61-64 and the Yankees at 69-55.
Despite sitting three games below .500, the Orioles enter the series tied with the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers for the final American League Wild Card position. New York currently owns the first Wild Card spot, while Boston sits second.
That makes this much more than another August series between two AL East rivals.
For Baltimore, these are essentially playoff games.
Orioles Coming Home With Momentum
The Orioles are coming off one of their most impressive series of the season, taking three of four from the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
Baltimore had an opportunity to complete the four-game sweep Monday night but could not protect a 6-4 lead in a 7-6 loss. Tampa Bay scored three runs in the seventh inning, with Jonathan Aranda and Jonny DeLuca delivering the decisive hits.
The loss was frustrating, but the larger picture remains encouraging. Baltimore went into Tampa Bay and won three straight against the team with the best record in the American League.
Now the Orioles return to Camden Yards for another enormous divisional series.
The schedule does not get easier, either. Baltimore hosts Tampa Bay for another three-game set immediately after the Yankees leave town.
The next six games could dramatically change the Orioles’ postseason chances.
Game 1: Carlos Rodón vs. Shane Baz
Tuesday, Aug. 18 — 6:35 p.m.
New York: LHP Carlos Rodón — 4-2, 3.30 ERA
Baltimore: RHP Shane Baz — 4-12, 4.00 ERA
Tuesday’s opener features an interesting pitching matchup.
The Yankees will activate Carlos Rodón from the injured list to make his first start since June 28. Rodón had been sidelined with left elbow inflammation after undergoing offseason elbow surgery.
Rodón has pitched well when healthy, carrying a 4-2 record and 3.30 ERA into Tuesday. ESPN gives the Orioles an almost microscopic advantage in its matchup predictor, 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent.
Baltimore counters with Shane Baz.
Baz’s 4-12 record does not tell the entire story. The right-hander owns a respectable 4.00 ERA with 122 strikeouts and has become an important part of an Orioles rotation that has performed much better as the season has progressed.
The biggest storyline might be how sharp Rodón looks after such a long layoff. Baltimore needs to make him work, extend at-bats and force the Yankees into their bullpen.
There may not be a better opportunity to attack Rodón than his first major-league start in nearly two months.
Game 2: Will Warren vs. Chris Bassitt
Wednesday, Aug. 19 — 6:35 p.m.
New York: RHP Will Warren — 8-6, 4.42 ERA
Baltimore: RHP Chris Bassitt — 4-4, 5.11 ERA
Wednesday looks like the most favorable offensive matchup of the series for Baltimore.
Will Warren enters with an 8-6 record, 4.42 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 118 innings. He has struck out 117 while allowing 125 hits and 18 home runs.
The Orioles need to take advantage.
Chris Bassitt will make his second start since returning from the injured list. Bassitt missed more than two months with lower-back discomfort before Baltimore activated him for Friday’s game against Tampa Bay.
Bassitt is 4-4 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 61 2/3 innings.
His first start back offered some encouraging signs, but Baltimore does not necessarily need Bassitt to dominate. If he can give the Orioles five or six competitive innings, the offense should have opportunities against Warren.
ESPN’s early matchup model gives Baltimore a 53.1 percent chance to win Wednesday’s game.
For a club fighting for every possible win, this feels like the game Baltimore needs to take.
Game 3: Gerrit Cole vs. Kyle Bradish
Thursday, Aug. 20 — 6:35 p.m.
New York: RHP Gerrit Cole — 6-6, 3.22 ERA
Baltimore: RHP Kyle Bradish — 7-11, 3.65 ERA
The series finale is easily the marquee pitching matchup.
Gerrit Cole enters at 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 92 strikeouts over 86 2/3 innings. Kyle Bradish is 7-11 with a 3.65 ERA and 124 strikeouts across 133 innings.
Those numbers suggest a potential pitchers’ duel.
Baltimore has already seen Bradish dominate the Yankees this season.
On May 13, Bradish threw six innings of one-hit baseball in a 7-0 Orioles victory over New York. He struck out seven and walked three before the bullpen completed the shutout.
ESPN Analytics currently gives Baltimore its biggest advantage of the series in Thursday’s game, putting the Orioles’ win probability at 58.1 percent.
If Bradish looks anything like he did against New York earlier this season, Baltimore will have a legitimate opportunity to finish the series strong.
Yankees Are Missing Their Biggest Weapon
The Orioles will not have to face Aaron Judge in this series.
Judge remains on the 60-day injured list while recovering from a fractured right rib. He recently resumed playing catch and running but has not appeared in a game since May 31. Before the injury, Judge hit .248 with 17 home runs, 38 RBIs and a .907 OPS in 34 games.
The Yankees have survived without him, but their offense has taken a significant hit.
New York entered this series with a .636 OPS since the All-Star break, the second-worst mark in Major League Baseball, according to Reuters.
Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton have also been working their way back from injuries, leaving the Yankees without several major pieces of their projected lineup.
That has placed an even greater burden on Ben Rice.
Rice has developed into the centerpiece of New York’s current offense and leads the Yankees with 33 home runs, 78 RBIs and 111 hits.
Keeping Rice from changing games with one swing should be near the top of Baltimore’s pitching plan.
Pete Alonso Is Absolutely Scorching
If there is one hitter the Yankees probably do not want to see right now, it is Pete Alonso.
Alonso has been carrying the Orioles’ offense.
He went 17-for-30 over his previous eight games with five home runs and 10 RBIs, raising his season total to 28 homers. He homered again Monday against Tampa Bay and was named American League Player of the Week after going 12-for-22 during the award period.
There is one concern.
Alonso has been dealing with a minor calf issue that has limited him primarily to designated hitter duties.
Baltimore can live with him at DH if the bat stays this hot.
The Orioles have needed an established middle-of-the-order force all season, and Alonso is providing exactly that during their most important stretch.
Coby Mayo Is Starting to Bring the Power
Coby Mayo also continues to show why Baltimore remained so patient with him.
Mayo launched a massive 468-foot home run Monday at Tropicana Field, his 16th homer of the season and the longest home run hit at the stadium this year.
That type of raw power changes a lineup.
Mayo does not need to become the focal point of the Orioles’ offense with Alonso, Gunnar Henderson and Tyler O’Neill around him. He simply needs to punish mistakes and provide legitimate power in the middle or lower half of the order.
The more dangerous Mayo becomes, the harder it becomes for opposing pitchers to navigate Baltimore’s lineup.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Providing Another Weapon
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is also beginning to make an impact.
He went 3-for-5 with a home run and four RBIs Monday against Tampa Bay, including a two-run homer that temporarily gave Baltimore a 6-4 advantage.
Baltimore suddenly has several hitters capable of changing a game with one swing.
Alonso, Mayo, Henderson, O’Neill and Encarnacion-Strand give the Orioles considerably more power than they displayed during some of their offensive struggles earlier in the summer.
The key now is consistency.
Gunnar Henderson Still Matters Most
As exciting as Baltimore’s recent offensive surge has been, Gunnar Henderson remains the player who can elevate the Orioles from a fringe Wild Card contender into something more dangerous.
Henderson has shown signs of heating up along with several other Baltimore hitters.
When Henderson is reaching base and driving the ball, Baltimore’s lineup becomes significantly deeper because pitchers cannot simply work around Alonso or attack weaker hitters.
This is the time of year when stars need to become stars.
The Orioles have 37 games remaining after Monday’s loss. There is still time for Henderson to put together a huge closing stretch.
Baltimore Has To Reverse the Season Series
One issue cannot be ignored.
New York has controlled Baltimore this season.
The Yankees enter Tuesday leading the season series 5-2.
That needs to change quickly.
The Orioles do not necessarily need a sweep, but winning two of three would be significant. It would improve Baltimore’s playoff position while simultaneously putting losses on one of the teams currently occupying a Wild Card spot.
That is what makes head-to-head games so valuable this time of year.
A victory helps Baltimore and hurts New York.
The Wild Card Race Is Wide Open
The American League Wild Card race has become chaotic.
New York is comfortably positioned at 69-55, while Boston sits at 67-58. Then comes the logjam.
Baltimore, Detroit and Texas are all 61-64. Minnesota and Toronto are just half a game behind at 61-65.
The Orioles could finish this Yankees series in possession of a playoff spot.
They could also finish it several teams deep in the standings.
There is virtually no margin for error.
That makes every bullpen decision, defensive mistake and missed opportunity with runners in scoring position increasingly important.
Orioles Bullpen Needs a Bounce-Back Series
Baltimore’s bullpen will be worth watching closely after Monday’s collapse.
The Orioles carried a 6-4 lead into the seventh inning against Tampa Bay before Yennier Cano and Josh Walker allowed the Rays to score three times and take the lead.
Baltimore cannot consistently give away late leads against teams like New York.
The starting rotation has done enough to keep the Orioles competitive. The offense is beginning to produce. The bullpen now has to finish games.
With Baz, Bassitt and Bradish scheduled to start, manager Brandon Hyde’s successor should have opportunities to line up the bullpen behind relatively traditional starts rather than relying on bullpen games.
Those final nine outs could determine this series.
Three Keys to the Series
1. Attack Carlos Rodón early Tuesday
Rodón has not pitched in a major-league game since June 28. Baltimore should force him into long counts immediately and test his command.
2. Keep Ben Rice in the ballpark
Without Judge, Stanton and Bellinger operating at full strength, Rice has become New York’s primary power threat. Baltimore cannot allow him to take over the series.
3. Let Alonso keep carrying the offense
There is no reason to complicate this. Alonso is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Put runners on base ahead of him and make the Yankees decide how aggressively they want to pitch to him.
MSB Prediction
This series feels much different than it would have a few weeks ago.
Baltimore is playing better baseball. Alonso is crushing the ball. Mayo is beginning to unlock his enormous power. Bradish gives the Orioles a legitimate chance against Cole in Game 3, and New York comes to Camden Yards without Judge and with an offense that has struggled badly in the second half.
The Yankees are still the better team on paper and have controlled the season series, but Baltimore has a real opportunity here.
MSB prediction: Orioles take two of three.
A series victory would not suddenly erase everything that went wrong during the first four months of the season.
It would, however, send a very clear message.
The Baltimore Orioles are still alive, and with September approaching, they are becoming an increasingly dangerous team in a completely wide-open American League Wild Card race.
