Orioles return home for crucial three-game AL East series against Blue Jays

The Baltimore Orioles are running out of time, and their final three games of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays carry significant meaning as Baltimore tries to finish a disappointing September on a positive note and remain mathematically alive in the American League playoff picture.

Baltimore opens a three-game series against Toronto on Monday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. All three games are scheduled for 6:35 p.m. starts, with the series running Monday through Wednesday.

The Orioles enter Monday at 75-81, while Toronto sits at 77-79. Baltimore has dropped three consecutive games and is coming off a sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. Toronto has also struggled recently, losing four of its past six despite beating the Texas Rangers 7-2 on Sunday.

For Baltimore, there is essentially no room left for another extended losing streak. The Orioles have six games remaining, and this series provides one final opportunity to gain ground directly against a division opponent sitting immediately ahead of them.

Orioles offense needs to wake up

Baltimore’s biggest immediate concern is its offense.

The Orioles were shut out by Milwaukee on Saturday and Sunday and enter Monday having gone 19 consecutive innings without scoring. That is a difficult way to enter one of the most important series remaining on the schedule.

Baltimore has averaged 4.44 runs per game this season while allowing 4.64, illustrating just how thin the margin has been. The Orioles are also 36-42 at Camden Yards.

When Baltimore’s offense produces, the results change dramatically. The Orioles are 56-20 when scoring at least five runs, according to the Associated Press.

That makes the formula for this series fairly obvious. Baltimore cannot continue asking its pitching staff to win games with one or two runs of support.

Pete Alonso remains the centerpiece of the Orioles lineup. Alonso enters the series batting .264 with 38 home runs, 105 RBIs, 24 doubles and 78 walks.

He has also performed well against Toronto. Alonso is batting .275 with three home runs and eight RBIs in 10 games against the Blue Jays this season.

Baltimore needs that production now.

Toronto has controlled the season series

The Orioles have seen plenty of Toronto this season, and the results have generally favored the Blue Jays.

Toronto leads the season series 6-4 entering Monday.

The teams split four games at Camden Yards in late May. Baltimore then won only one of three games in Toronto in early June.

The clubs met again just over a week ago at Rogers Centre.

Baltimore won the opener 7-4 on Sept. 11 before Toronto responded with consecutive victories, beating the Orioles 7-3 and 8-1.

That makes this final three-game set an opportunity for Baltimore to change the tone of the matchup.

Monday: Trey Yesavage vs. Shane Baz

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Monday, Sept. 21 — 6:35 p.m.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Toronto is scheduled to start right-hander Trey Yesavage, while Baltimore will counter with Shane Baz.

Yesavage enters at 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 91 strikeouts. Monday will be his first start after spending more than a month on the injured list because of left knee inflammation.

That creates an interesting challenge for Baltimore. Yesavage has been effective when healthy, but the Orioles will be facing a pitcher returning from a lengthy absence.

Baltimore needs to force him to work. Long at-bats, controlling the strike zone and avoiding quick outs could become especially important if Toronto intends to monitor Yesavage’s workload.

Statcast data shows current Orioles hitters have only a .154 batting average in 31 plate appearances against Yesavage, although the underlying expected numbers have been considerably higher.

Baz enters at 6-15 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 152 strikeouts.

His record does not tell the entire story. Baz has dealt with inconsistent run support, and his strikeout numbers show that he still possesses the ability to miss bats.

There is also some encouraging matchup data for Baltimore.

Current Toronto hitters have a .219 average and .245 wOBA in 77 plate appearances against Baz, according to Baseball Savant.

ESPN Analytics gives Baltimore a 54.3 percent matchup probability for Monday, according to the information provided for the series.

This looks like Baltimore’s most balanced pitching matchup of the three games. Getting the series started with a victory would be particularly important with an unusual pitching matchup awaiting Tuesday.

Tuesday: Max Scherzer vs. Chris Bassitt

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, Sept. 22 — 6:35 p.m.

Tuesday brings two highly experienced right-handers to the mound.

Toronto is scheduled to start Max Scherzer, who enters at 3-8 with a 6.07 ERA. Baltimore is scheduled to counter with Chris Bassitt, who is 8-5 with a 4.64 ERA.

Those are hardly the numbers normally associated with Scherzer.

At this stage of his career, however, the Orioles cannot simply assume that the 42-year-old right-hander will struggle because of his season ERA. Scherzer’s experience and ability to change speeds can still create problems if Baltimore allows him to establish the strike zone early.

This should be a game in which the Orioles attack hittable pitches.

Baltimore cannot afford to repeatedly take fastballs in the zone and then chase once it falls behind in counts. Scherzer’s 6.07 ERA suggests opponents have found opportunities against him this season, and the Orioles need to capitalize when those opportunities arrive.

Bassitt gives Baltimore another veteran starter capable of navigating a lineup even without overpowering velocity.

The Orioles need length from him.

September games frequently become bullpen contests, and Baltimore will want to avoid using five or six relievers every night during the final week of the season.

The matchup shown in the provided ESPN information heavily favors Baltimore, with ESPN Analytics giving the Orioles a 65.9 percent matchup probability.

Of the three games, Tuesday may represent Baltimore’s clearest opportunity on paper.

Wednesday: Blue Jays vs. Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, Sept. 23 — 6:35 p.m.

The pitching situation for Wednesday is less certain.

Toronto had been expected to have Dylan Cease available, but Cease underwent an MRI on his throwing shoulder after experiencing decreased velocity. Manager John Schneider indicated that Cease might not pitch again until Toronto’s final series against Cincinnati, if he returns at all.

Cease has been outstanding this season, going 11-6 with a 2.40 ERA and 239 strikeouts over 169 innings. His potential absence represents a major development for Toronto.

As of Monday morning, MLB’s probable-pitcher listing did not identify Wednesday’s starters.

That makes Wednesday a game to monitor as the series progresses.

The provided ESPN Analytics matchup predictor currently gives Baltimore a 57.8 percent probability, compared with Toronto’s 42.2 percent.

Guerrero’s status is worth monitoring

Toronto has its own significant injury question.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left Sunday’s victory over Texas because of lower-back tightness.

Guerrero remains one of the hitters Baltimore least wants to see with runners on base. His status could therefore alter the complexion of the entire series.

Toronto already has pitching concerns, particularly with Cease unavailable for his expected start. Losing or limiting Guerrero would create another major problem for a team desperately trying to remain in the wild-card race.

Alonso vs. Okamoto

The series also features two of the most dangerous power bats on the respective rosters.

Alonso enters with 38 home runs and 105 RBIs for Baltimore.

Toronto’s Kazuma Okamoto enters with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs, according to the ESPN information provided for the series. Okamoto also homered against Baltimore during Toronto’s 8-1 victory on Sept. 13.

Keeping runners off base in front of Toronto’s middle-of-the-order bats will be critical for Baz, Bassitt and the Orioles bullpen.

Baltimore’s pitching staff cannot afford unnecessary walks. Solo home runs are survivable. Three-run home runs can quickly decide games during a series in which Baltimore’s offense is currently struggling to score.

Orioles need to reverse recent offensive struggles

There is no complicated explanation for what Baltimore needs to accomplish.

The Orioles have to hit.

Baltimore has gone 19 consecutive innings without scoring and just suffered a three-game sweep at Camden Yards.

The Orioles have enough power to change a game quickly, particularly with Alonso anchoring the lineup, but they need more than isolated home runs.

Baltimore must create traffic.

That means walks, singles, productive outs and pressure on Toronto’s defense. The Orioles have too often allowed opposing pitchers to work through innings without having to pitch with runners in scoring position.

The club’s 56-20 record when scoring at least five runs shows what happens when the offense gives the pitching staff some breathing room.

Five runs should again be the target.

Three keys to the series

Score first. Baltimore badly needs an early lead Monday. After consecutive shutouts and 19 scoreless innings, scoring in the opening few innings could remove some pressure from the lineup and allow Baz to pitch aggressively.

Make Toronto’s starters work. Yesavage is returning from the injured list, Scherzer has struggled this season and Wednesday’s pitching situation remains unsettled. Baltimore should emphasize plate discipline rather than allowing Toronto’s starters to cruise through five or six innings on low pitch counts.

Get Alonso opportunities with runners aboard. Alonso has 38 home runs and 105 RBIs and has already hit three home runs against Toronto this season. The Orioles need runners on base when their biggest power threat comes to the plate.

The playoff picture

Both clubs enter the series on the outskirts of the American League postseason race.

Toronto is three games behind the final AL wild-card position with six games remaining. Baltimore is even further back after being swept by Milwaukee.

That makes every result significant.

For Toronto, losing two or three games in Baltimore could effectively extinguish its postseason hopes. Baltimore’s situation is even more precarious.

Regardless of the eventual postseason mathematics, these games also matter as the Orioles evaluate what they have heading toward 2027.

Baltimore expected to contend. Instead, it enters the final six games at 75-81 and guaranteed to finish no better than 81-81.

There are still opportunities to establish momentum, evaluate the roster and finish competitively.

MSB Take

The Orioles picked a terrible time for their offense to disappear.

Baltimore has gone 19 innings without scoring and now has only six games left. After getting swept at home by Milwaukee, the Orioles cannot afford another flat offensive series.

The pitching matchups give Baltimore an opportunity. Baz has pitched better than his 6-15 record suggests in several stretches, Bassitt faces a struggling Scherzer on Tuesday, and Toronto’s Wednesday rotation plans have been disrupted by Cease’s shoulder issue.

But none of that matters if Baltimore does not score.

Alonso needs help. The Orioles need runners on base ahead of their biggest power hitters, better at-bats with runners in scoring position and considerably more pressure on opposing pitchers.

This is also Baltimore’s last chance to respond to Toronto after the Blue Jays took two of three from the Orioles just over a week ago.

The Orioles may not control their postseason destiny anymore, but they control how they finish.

And after a frustrating sweep against Milwaukee, taking this series from Toronto would be a much better way to begin the final week of the 2026 season.