Orioles Head to Minnesota for Critical Three-Game Series Against Twins
By Brian Hradsky | Maryland Sports Blog
The Baltimore Orioles enter Minnesota with little margin for error.
Baltimore opens a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins Monday night at Target Field, and the matchup has significant American League Wild Card implications. The Orioles enter the series at 57-61, while Minnesota sits only a half-game ahead at 58-61. Baltimore is two games out of the final AL Wild Card position, with Minnesota 1.5 games back.
For an Orioles club that has spent much of the season trying to stay within striking distance, this is exactly the type of series Baltimore needs to win.
Making the opener even more interesting is a familiar face on the mound for Minnesota: Dean Kremer.
Series Schedule
The entire series will be played at Target Field in Minneapolis. MLB lists the following probable pitching matchups:
Monday, Aug. 10 — 7:40 p.m. ET
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs. Dean Kremer (MIN)
Tuesday, Aug. 11 — 7:40 p.m. ET
Brandon Young (BAL) vs. Bailey Ober (MIN)
Wednesday, Aug. 12 — 1:40 p.m. ET
Shane Baz (BAL) vs. Zebby Matthews (MIN)
All three games are scheduled to air on MASN in the Baltimore market.
Game 1: Trevor Rogers vs. Dean Kremer
Monday’s opener has easily the best storyline of the series.
Trevor Rogers will start for Baltimore carrying a 7-7 record, 4.20 ERA and 98 strikeouts. Across 115 2/3 innings, Rogers has also posted a 1.24 WHIP, according to the matchup information provided by ESPN and MLB’s probable pitcher listings.
Minnesota counters with Kremer, who spent years as a fixture in the Orioles rotation before Baltimore dealt him to the Twins at the trade deadline.
The Orioles traded Kremer to Minnesota on Aug. 1 in exchange for outfield prospect Jhomnardo Reyes. Minnesota activated Kremer the following day.
Now, barely more than a week after the trade, Kremer gets to pitch against his former teammates.
That should make Monday one of the more unusual games Baltimore has played this season.
Kremer enters the matchup 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 41 innings.
The numbers clearly favor Rogers on paper, but facing a recently traded teammate brings another element into the matchup. Kremer knows Baltimore’s hitters, while Orioles hitters have seen Kremer’s arsenal extensively in spring training, live batting practice and team workouts.
There should not be many secrets on either side.
For Baltimore, attacking Kremer early could be important. The Orioles cannot afford to let the emotion surrounding the reunion turn into a dominant outing for their former starter.
Game 2: Brandon Young vs. Bailey Ober
Baltimore might have its strongest pitching advantage Tuesday.
Brandon Young continues to be one of the Orioles’ biggest positives this season. Young enters the game 8-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 89 strikeouts through 107 2/3 innings.
Young has helped stabilize a Baltimore rotation that has gone through injuries, trades and significant changes.
The Twins will counter with Bailey Ober, who is 7-3 with a 4.45 ERA and 63 strikeouts.
Ober missed time earlier this season with right elbow inflammation. Before the injury, MLB reported that his ERA had climbed to 4.59 following a rough outing against Pittsburgh, although he had pitched well for much of the first two months of the season.
Tuesday could be Baltimore’s best chance to control a game with its starting pitching.
Young does not need to be dominant. If he can keep Minnesota to two or three runs and pitch deep enough to protect the Orioles bullpen, Baltimore’s offense should have an opportunity against Ober.
Game 3: Shane Baz vs. Zebby Matthews
Wednesday’s afternoon finale gives Baltimore another favorable-looking matchup.
Shane Baz enters at 4-11, but the record does not tell the entire story. Baz owns a solid 3.76 ERA with 120 strikeouts through 136 1/3 innings.
That combination of ERA, innings and strikeouts suggests Baz has pitched substantially better than his win-loss record.
Minnesota is scheduled to send Zebby Matthews to the mound. Matthews is 5-8 with a 5.23 ERA and 73 strikeouts through 86 innings.
On paper, Baltimore should have another starting pitching advantage.
The Orioles cannot waste it.
Pete Alonso Finally Breaks Out
Baltimore enters Minnesota coming off perhaps its most encouraging offensive performance in weeks.
The Orioles beat the Texas Rangers 10-5 Sunday, avoiding a sweep after scoring only one run in each of their previous three games. Baltimore collected 15 hits in the win.
Pete Alonso was the biggest reason.
Alonso went 3-for-5 with two home runs and four RBIs, producing his first multi-home run game with Baltimore. His second homer gave him 25 for the season. Tyler O’Neill also hit a two-run homer, Colton Cowser homered, and Coby Mayo recorded three hits.
That is the version of Baltimore’s offense the Orioles desperately need.
Alonso enters the Minnesota series with 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .252 batting average, according to ESPN’s matchup data.
The Orioles brought Alonso in to be a centerpiece of the lineup. If Sunday was the beginning of one of his trademark power streaks, the timing could not be much better.
Baltimore needs Alonso driving the baseball because this lineup has been far too inconsistent.
Orioles Need More From the Entire Lineup
One 10-run afternoon cannot erase the Orioles’ recent offensive problems.
Before Sunday’s explosion, Baltimore had scored just one run in three consecutive games.
The Orioles need consistent production from Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill and Alonso rather than depending on one or two players each night.
Baltimore’s current 40-man roster also reflects just how different this team looks following deadline movement and injuries. Alonso, Henderson, Holliday and Mayo remain prominent pieces of the infield, while the pitching staff includes Rogers, Baz, Young and Kyle Bradish.
Samuel Basallo remains listed on the 10-day injured list, meaning Baltimore is still operating without one of its most important young bats.
For Baltimore to make a legitimate August push, the healthy hitters have to carry more of the load.
Minnesota Has Dangerous Bats
The Twins are hardly an offensive juggernaut, but they have enough talent to make Baltimore pay for mistakes.
Minnesota’s lineup recently included Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Alan Roden and Luke Keaschall.
Byron Buxton has 25 home runs, matching Alonso’s total according to ESPN’s series information, although Minnesota has recently operated with Keaschall in center field.
Bell has also been one of Minnesota’s primary run producers, entering the series with 68 RBIs and 15 home runs, according to the ESPN matchup data supplied for the series.
The Orioles pitching staff cannot assume Minnesota’s sub-.500 record means easy outs.
Twins Also Trying to Save Their Season
Minnesota comes into the series after a difficult 4-3, 10-inning loss to Milwaukee Sunday.
The Twins repeatedly had opportunities to take control but finished just 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded the bases loaded in both the seventh and eighth innings. Milwaukee eventually won on Jake Bauers’ walk-off single in the 10th.
That dropped Minnesota to 58-61.
The Twins remain ahead of Baltimore in the Wild Card chase, but barely.
MLB’s standings entering Monday show the Texas Rangers holding the final Wild Card spot, followed by Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland and Baltimore among the teams chasing. Minnesota and Cleveland sit 1.5 games back while Baltimore is two games behind.
That makes the head-to-head nature of this series especially important.
Baltimore does not merely need victories. The Orioles have an opportunity to directly hand losses to one of the teams they are chasing.
Baltimore Cannot Settle for One Win
At this stage of the season, winning one of three games is not enough.
The Orioles have 44 games remaining and sit below .500. They have several teams between themselves and a Wild Card position.
This is becoming the portion of the schedule where series wins need to become the expectation.
Taking two of three would move Baltimore ahead of Minnesota in the standings, assuming no postponements or other complications. A sweep would represent a potentially significant momentum swing.
Losing two or three would do the opposite.
Baltimore would leave Minnesota still under .500 and potentially fall farther behind a crowded collection of American League contenders.
Three Keys to the Series
1. Keep Alonso hot.
Sunday showed how different Baltimore’s offense looks when Alonso is driving the baseball. His power can change a game quickly, and the Orioles need that threat in the middle of the lineup.
2. Take advantage of the pitching matchups.
Baltimore enters all three games with starters who have lower ERAs than their scheduled Minnesota counterparts. Rogers has a 4.20 ERA against Kremer’s 5.93, Young has a 3.43 ERA against Ober’s 4.45, and Baz has a 3.76 ERA against Matthews’ 5.23.
3. Win the Kremer game.
There is no mathematical reason Monday counts more than Tuesday or Wednesday, but emotionally it does. Baltimore traded Kremer nine days ago. Allowing him to immediately shut down his former club would be a difficult way to begin such an important series.
MSB Prediction
This is a series Baltimore should win.
The Orioles have the better scheduled starting pitcher statistically in all three games, their offense is coming off a 10-run performance, and Minnesota has lost two straight.
MSB prediction: Orioles win the series, 2-1.
Monday feels like the swing game. If Rogers can outpitch Kremer and Baltimore carries Sunday’s offensive momentum into Target Field, the Orioles could put themselves in position for a very successful trip.
For a team sitting two games outside the playoff field, though, moral victories no longer matter.
Baltimore needs wins.
And against the team sitting immediately in front of it, this is one of the most important series the Orioles have played all season.
