With 15 games left in the regular season the Baltimore Orioles face a difficult but not impossible path to the postseason despite being five games under .500. Their elimination number sits at 12, meaning that any combination of Oriole losses and Guardian wins that adds up to 12 will officially eliminate them. The Blue Jays and Rangers are also in the hunt, but the Orioles have six games against the Blue Jays and the Rangers still have the Diamondbacks and Red Sox on their schedule in the home stretch, so the Orioles could overcome these two teams as well to secure the final wild card spot.
As this post is going to be published before the Rangers play Seattle this afternoon, I’m going to assume they win that game today against a struggling Mariners team to move to a 73-74 record akin to the Blue Jays while the Orioles sit at 71-76.
Series 1, September 11-13
The Orioles take two of three against the Blue Jays while the Rangers lose two of three to the Diamondbacks in Arizona. The Guardians win two of three against a struggling and virtually eliminated Twins team. The Orioles are still 3.0 games from the Wild Card with an elimination number of 9, but the competition has condensed with the Rangers and Blue Jays:
Standings: Guardians 76-74, Blue Jays 74-76, Rangers 74-76, Orioles 73-77
Series 2, September 14-17
The Orioles sweep the Mets in New York while the Guardians lose two of three to the White Sox at home. The Rangers lose two of three to the Red Sox at home while the Blue Jays win two of three against the woeful Detroit Tigers. The Orioles are now one game back from the Wild Card with an elimination number of 8.
Standings: Guardians 77-76, Blue Jays 76-77, Orioles 76-77, Rangers 75-78
Series 3, September 18-20
Arguably the toughest for the Orioles to come out winners as they visit Milwaukee, but Milwaukee could take its foot off the gas at this stage in the season having likely locked up a high playoff seed, so the Orioles need to take two of three here. The Athletics need to get it together to beat the Guardians at least once in this three game series while the Rangers need to win two of three against the Blue Jays. The Orioles are a game back but lose the tiebreaker with the Guardians, so the elimination number is now 5.
Standings: Guardians 79-77, Orioles 78-78, Rangers 77-79, Blue Jays 77-79
Series 4, September 21-24
In the last series where the Orioles can affect another team in the chase, they need to beat Toronto two out of three times in Canada. The Guardians lose two of three to the Red Sox who are hopefully vying for home field advantage against the Yankees in the playoffs while the Rangers sweep the Mets at home. The elimination number is now 3 as the Rangers and Guardians both hold tiebreakers over Baltimore.
Standings: Guardians 80-79, Rangers 80-79, Orioles 80-79, Blue Jays 78-81
Series 5, September 25-27
The Orioles take two of three at Yankee Stadium while the Guardians somehow lose two out of three to a Kansas City team that decides it didn’t hear a bell on the season. The Rangers lose two of three to the Twins in a similar manner while the Blue Jays sweep the Reds at home. In typical late season drama, the Orioles clinch on Sunday, September 27th, winning the third game against a Yankees team that has checked out while a spunky Royals team wins in extra innings against the Guardians. As one final boon to the Orioles, Dean Kremer pitches a 7 inning one-run gem to eliminate the Rangers.
Standings: Orioles 82-80, Guardians 81-81, Rangers 81-81, Blue Jays 81-81
The Orioles would lose tiebreakers to both the Rangers and Guardians due to head-to-head record, but if the Blue Jays somehow managed to tie with them the Orioles would win that tiebreaker 7-5.
