Preview: Ravens “Locked In” Ahead of AFC Championship Against Chiefs

Sunday’s AFC championship between the Ravens and Chiefs will be a historic day as its the first AFC championship played at home in Ravens franchise history and the first AFC championship played in Baltimore since 1970. The Ravens are coming off a dominate win over the Houston Texans last Saturday in the divisional round. While the Chiefs sent Josh Allen and Bills home by a final of 27-24 to advance. Sunday is expected to be one if the best games of the year as two of the games best quarterbacks face off for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The Ravens at this point in the year couldn’t be anymore healthy as they had all 53 men out at practice on Friday. The notable injuries include wide receiver Tylan Wallace (knee) and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (knee), both are listed as questionable. Linebacker Del’Shawn Phillips (shoulder) is listed as doubtful after being limited in practice all week. However, the best injury news surrounds two stars who have missed an extended period of time. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) practiced for the first time this week since missing the last three games. Humphrey practiced in full on Friday and is currently listed as questionable. Tight end Mark Andrews who fractured his ankle just nine weeks ago, began practicing last week and continued practicing in full this week. Andrews was activated off injured reserve on Friday and does not an an injury designation meaning he will return to the lineup for the first time since week 11.

The Chiefs come to Baltimore a little more banged up as they get set to play now their third playoff game, and second straight on the road. Wide receiver Sky Moore (knee) and defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (triceps) have already been ruled out as well as guard Joe Thuney (pectroal) which is a big loss for the Chiefs offensive line. Safety Mike Edwards (concussion) and wide receiver Kadarius Toney (hip) are both listed as questionable. Linebacker Willie Gay (neck) is also listed as questionable after not practicing on Friday and being limited throughout the week. Chiefs star running back Isiah Pacheco practiced only one time in a limited fashion on Friday with an ankle/toe injury, but told reporters he will play, he is listed as questionable.

Players to Watch:

Kyle Hamilton

Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton is having one of the best second years by any player, as he was awarded All-Pro honors while also being named to his first Pro-Bowl. Hamilton has dealt with a knee injury throughout the second half of the season that forced him to miss two games. But even with the missed time Hamilton racked up 81 total tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble, and four interceptions, one of which was a touchdown. Hamilton’s unique style of always him to play all over the field as an additional linebacker as well as in his traditional safety role.

Last week in the divisional round Hamilton had three tackles as well as a near interception, as he helped the Ravens defense hold Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to just 175 yards passing and no touchdowns. Hamilton will be a difference maker om Sunday as he will be tasked with guarding All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce while also being a force in the run game and off the edge as a blitzer.

Isiah Pacheco

Despite the injury that running back Isiah Pacheco is dealing with heading into Sunday, his ability to take over games both on the ground and through the air could be huge for the Chiefs as they look to upset the Ravens. Pacheco’s hard running style allowed him to rush for over 930 yards this season while adding seven rushing touchdowns. Through the air Pacheco totaled 44 receptions for 244 yards and two touchdowns.

In two games this postseason Pacheco has rushed 39 times for 186 yards and touchdowns, including 97 rushing yards and one touchdown last week against the Bills. The Chiefs for the most part this season have been inconsistent on offense have they have struggled to find another weapon outside of tight end Travis Kelce. But Pacheco has quickly become that guy this offense needs and will need on Sunday.

Prediction

The Ravens enter Sundays contest having defeated some of the NFL’s best throughout the regular season. Their matchup against the Chiefs will be no different as they matchup against the raining Super Bowl Champions. The Ravens are the better team on paper, but it won’t be easy facing off against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The key for the Ravens will be controlling the game and limiting the opportunities that Mahomes has to touch the ball. That will mean having a strong rushing attack and turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns rather then field goals. The addition of Mark Andrews is big for this Ravens offense as well, and it will be interesting to see how he is used alongside fellow tight end Isaiah Likely who broke out in Andrews absence.

Another important key will be the Ravens defense getting off the field on third down, especially when the Chiefs are put into third and long situations. I think if the Ravens can force Mahomes to get greedy and try to make plays down the field they can have several opportunities to come away with some turnovers and alter the game in the Ravens favor. I expect the first half to be close as both teams feel each other out, but halftime adjustments will be key, and that where I give the advantage to the Ravens. Rain could be a factor late into the game, but I think the Ravens start to pull away in the second half as they run all over the Chiefs defense and make life tough for Mahomes in the pocket. Ravens win 30-20, and advance to their third Super Bowl in franchise history.

Line: Baltimore -4

Over/Under: 44.5

All-Time Record: Kansas City leads series 7-4 (Baltimore 1-0 in the playoffs*)

Last Meeting: 9/19/21 Baltimore 36-35