Orioles Look to Stop Four-Game Skid as Rays Visit Camden Yards for Crucial AL East Series
The Baltimore Orioles desperately need to rediscover the momentum they had less than a week ago.
Baltimore opens a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, only a few days after completing a four-game series against the same Rays in St. Petersburg.
The Orioles took the first three games of that series and briefly surged back into an American League Wild Card position. Since then, everything has gone in the opposite direction.
Tampa Bay avoided the sweep with a 7-6 comeback win Monday, and the New York Yankees followed by sweeping Baltimore at Camden Yards. Thursday’s 6-1 loss to New York extended the Orioles’ losing streak to four games and dropped them to 61-67.
Now the team Baltimore just beat three times in four games is coming to town.
The Rays enter the weekend 76-51 and remain atop the American League East despite cooling considerably after a long winning stretch. Tampa Bay finished its most recent seven-game homestand just 2-5 and lost two of three to the Toronto Blue Jays before traveling to Baltimore.
The Orioles are still alive in the American League Wild Card race, but the margin for extended losing streaks is disappearing quickly.
Series Schedule
Friday, Aug. 21 – 7:15 p.m.
Freddy Peralta vs. Trevor Rogers
Saturday, Aug. 22 – 7:05 p.m.
Shane McClanahan vs. Brandon Young
Sunday, Aug. 23 – 1:35 p.m.
Nick Martinez vs. Shane Baz
Game 1: Freddy Peralta vs. Trevor Rogers
Friday’s opener gives the Orioles a familiar matchup.
Baltimore faced Freddy Peralta only five days ago at Tropicana Field and eventually broke the game open in a 10-2 victory. Peralta allowed two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in that game and fell to 5-10 with a 5.27 ERA.
Peralta actually pitched better than the final score suggested early in that outing. He kept Baltimore quiet for much of his appearance before the Orioles eventually worked their way into Tampa Bay’s bullpen.
The Orioles then broke the game open late.
Peralta enters Friday with a 5-10 record, 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 128 innings, according to the matchup information shown by ESPN.
Baltimore counters with Trevor Rogers, who pitched extremely well against Tampa Bay last Sunday.
Rogers allowed two runs over six innings in Baltimore’s 10-2 win, striking out six and improving to 8-8. His ERA dropped to 4.15.
He enters Friday at 8-8 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 125 2/3 innings pitched.
This is the pitching matchup Baltimore should feel best about.
ESPN Analytics gives the Orioles a 61.5 percent chance to win Friday, compared with 38.5 percent for Tampa Bay.
If Baltimore is going to stop this four-game losing streak, Rogers gives the Orioles a strong opportunity to do it immediately.
Game 2: Shane McClanahan vs. Brandon Young
Saturday could be the most intriguing matchup of the series.
Shane McClanahan will make another start against Baltimore after facing the Orioles in the final game of the previous series.
McClanahan allowed three runs over 3 1/3 innings in Tampa Bay’s 7-6 victory Monday. It was his first major league start since returning from the injured list.
Despite missing time, McClanahan’s overall numbers remain strong.
The left-hander enters Saturday 9-6 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across 102 1/3 innings.
Baltimore will counter with Brandon Young.
Young has emerged as one of the Orioles’ better developments this season. He is 9-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 117 2/3 innings.
The Rays got to Young Monday, scoring four runs in four innings, although Baltimore’s offense repeatedly brought the team back into the game before Tampa Bay finally went ahead for good in the seventh.
Young now gets another opportunity against the same lineup with only a few days between starts.
ESPN’s matchup predictor slightly favors Baltimore again, giving the Orioles a 52.4 percent chance to win Saturday.
This matchup could come down to which pitcher makes the better adjustment after seeing the opposing lineup so recently.
Game 3: Nick Martinez vs. Shane Baz
Sunday could provide the toughest individual pitching matchup for Baltimore.
Nick Martinez has been one of Tampa Bay’s most dependable starters this season.
Martinez enters the series 12-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 141 2/3 innings.
His most recent start was much rougher than most of his season, however. Toronto scored six runs against him in 3 2/3 innings Tuesday during a 10-5 Blue Jays win.
Baltimore counters with Shane Baz.
Baz enters Sunday 4-13 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 145 2/3 innings.
His win-loss record is ugly, but there have been stretches where he has pitched considerably better than that record suggests.
Baltimore needs the stronger version of Baz in the series finale.
ESPN Analytics again gives the Orioles a slight edge Sunday, 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent.
All three matchup projections favor Baltimore, but Friday is the only game where ESPN sees a major difference between the clubs.
Baltimore Just Proved It Can Beat Tampa Bay
The biggest reason for optimism is obvious: the Orioles just went into Tampa Bay and took three of four games from the best team in the American League.
Baltimore won 6-5 in the opener, 4-3 in 10 innings in the second game and then exploded for a 10-2 victory Sunday.
The Orioles were one win away from an impressive four-game road sweep Monday.
Instead, Tampa Bay rallied.
Baltimore held multiple leads in the finale, but the Rays scored three runs in the seventh and eventually escaped with a 7-6 victory.
That series showed the Orioles can score against Tampa Bay.
The question is whether that offense returns to Camden Yards.
Orioles Offense Must Wake Back Up
Baltimore’s offense disappeared against New York.
The Orioles scored only five runs in three games against the Yankees.
They lost 3-1 Tuesday, 5-3 Wednesday and 6-1 Thursday.
Thursday was particularly ugly. Baltimore managed only four hits, struck out 12 times and produced just one run. Dylan Beavers hit the Orioles’ only home run of the night. Gerrit Cole allowed one run across six innings, and Ryan Yarbrough retired all nine Orioles he faced to finish the game.
That is a dramatic reversal from what happened in Tampa Bay.
The Orioles scored 26 runs during the four-game series against the Rays, including 10 on Sunday and six Monday.
Baltimore needs that version of the offense back.
Pete Alonso remains one of the club’s most important hitters. Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jackson Holliday and Beavers give Baltimore enough offensive talent to score runs.
The lineup simply has not produced consistently enough.
Pete Alonso Remains Critical
Alonso has become one of Baltimore’s most important bats during the playoff push.
The Orioles need consistent production from the middle of the order, especially with the season entering its final stretch.
Baltimore’s recent struggles have not eliminated it from contention, but every loss makes the path harder.
A big weekend from Alonso could completely change the mood surrounding this team again.
Keep an Eye on Tampa Bay’s Yandy Diaz
The Rays remain dangerous even though their recent results have cooled.
Yandy Diaz enters the series swinging the bat well, while Tampa Bay still has several hitters capable of changing a game with one swing.
Junior Caminero remains another major threat in the Rays lineup.
Baltimore cannot allow Tampa Bay’s top hitters to repeatedly create traffic and put pressure on the pitching staff.
Tampa Bay Bullpen Remains Dangerous Late
Baltimore also knows what can happen if the Rays carry a lead into the late innings.
Former Orioles reliever Bryan Baker has developed into one of Tampa Bay’s most effective late-inning arms this season.
That makes scoring early even more important.
The Orioles did an excellent job getting into Tampa Bay’s bullpen during their 10-2 victory Sunday. They need to take the same approach this weekend: grind through at-bats, increase pitch counts and avoid allowing the Rays to control the final innings.
The Wild Card Race Makes This Series Important
A week ago, Baltimore seemed to be moving in exactly the right direction.
Three consecutive wins against Tampa Bay pushed the Orioles back into serious playoff discussion.
Four consecutive losses later, the Orioles are again trying to stop a slide.
That is how quickly things can change in late August.
Baltimore does not have much room left for long losing streaks.
Winning two of three this weekend would stop the bleeding.
A sweep would immediately change the outlook again.
Losing another series would make the climb significantly harder.
MSB Keys to the Series
1. Rogers needs to set the tone Friday
Baltimore cannot allow this losing streak to reach five games. Rogers pitched well against Tampa Bay in his previous start and gives the Orioles a strong chance to win the opener.
2. Score before the late innings
The Orioles do not want to spend the weekend trying to manufacture comeback rallies against Tampa Bay’s bullpen.
3. Get Alonso and Henderson producing together
Baltimore needs its two most established middle-of-the-order bats to create damage.
4. Make Tampa Bay’s starters work
Peralta, McClanahan and Martinez are capable of controlling games when comfortable. Baltimore needs long at-bats and early baserunners.
5. Clean up the defense
Baltimore’s defensive mistake Thursday helped New York turn the third inning into a three-run frame. The Orioles cannot continue giving good teams extra outs.
MSB Prediction
This series feels like an important weekend for Baltimore.
The Orioles have already demonstrated that they match up well with Tampa Bay, taking three of four in St. Petersburg less than a week ago.
Rogers gives Baltimore a legitimate advantage Friday. Young has pitched well for much of the season. Baz has shown the ability to dominate when his command is right.
The problem is momentum.
Baltimore enters on a four-game losing streak while its offense looked completely overmatched against the Yankees.
Still, this is not an unbeatable Rays club.
The Orioles should be able to win this series.
MSB Prediction: Orioles take two of three.
Friday feels like the most important game.
If Rogers delivers another strong outing and Baltimore gets the offense moving again, the Orioles have a chance to reset quickly.
If the losing streak continues through Friday, the pressure Saturday becomes enormous.
The Orioles are still alive in the American League playoff race, but this is the point of the season where being close is no longer enough.
They need wins.
