The Orioles are putting all their eggs in one basket

With the Alex Cobb signing this week it really seems that the Baltimore Orioles are gearing up for a playoff run.

However there are a few problems with this idea. Even with the addition of Cobb and Cashner, the Orioles are projected for 87 wins which would put them at 3rd place in the AL East behind the New York Yankees and the Boston Red sox, this would have them in the hunt for 2nd wildcard behind the Red sox.

Now let’s imagine a best-case scenario. Manny is crushing, Davis returns to 2015 form, Bundy is dealing and Gausman gets rolling early. Fast forward to the trade deadline, just above 500., they don’t trade away Manny and they talk up Britton coming back after the All-Star break.

Then reality sets in; Jones slows down, Trumbo plays a few games in right field, Cashner can’t strike people out, and Britton can’t get it together. But behind Schoop, Machado, Bundy, and Brach the Orioles make it to 2nd wildcard and lose to Boston. Machado catches the bus to New York and Duquette talks about how close they were.

Frankly this best-case scenario is not good at all, but the worst-case scenario is the stuff of nightmares.

It’s basically the same scenario except Tillman implodes and Manny stays in his funk. At the trade deadline however, they are still close enough to the 2nd wild card that they don’t trade Manny. Fast forward to the end of the season and the Orioles have won 65 games and Manny catches the bus to New York.

I am not saying the orioles can’t make a playoff run, I am just saying it is unlikely, and even if we do the Orioles future just got darker because Cobb cost us a high draft pick.

This leads to my question if the Orioles are at 500. at the trade deadline, should they trade Machado? Let me know in the comments.

 

Boaz

Born and raised in Baltimore Maryland now a Montgomery College student. Supporting the Ravens and Orioles since 1998. Also a West Wing Fan!

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