Ravens’ AFC Championship Odds Get Longer After Bad Two-Week Stretch

According to the AFC Championship odds  at SportsBettingDime.com, the Ravens’ odds to win the AFC title were as short as +1000 after Week 2. That was tied for the third-best in the conference, behind only the Patriots (+150) and Chiefs (+300), i.e. the two teams that met in last year’s AFC Championship.The reasons for optimism were abundant.

Lamar Jackson had looked like a true dual-threat QB, passing for 596 yards, 7 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 72% completion percentage in a rout of Miami (59-10) and a comfortable win over Arizona (23-17).The defense, which had lost its backbone in the form of CJ Mosley, Terrell Suggs, Eric Weddle, and Za’Darius Smith, was giving up less than 275 yards per game. The run defense, in particular, seemed impenetrable, surrendering a grand total of 41 yards in eight quarters.

The reigning AFC North champions looked well on their way to a second straight division title, especially with the Browns, Steelers, and Bengals combining for one win in the first two weeks of the year.Fast forward to Week 4, the Ravens are now 2-2 after back-to-back losses to the Chiefs (33-28) and Browns (40-25).

In the last two games, Jackson has completed less than 60% of his passes while the defense has surrendered 73 points and over 1,000 total yards.Suddenly, Baltimore’s electric 2-0 start has to be taken with a grain of salt bigger than the Transamerica Tower.The Ravens’ first opponent, Miami, . Their second opponent, Arizona, is 0-3-1 and sports the third-worst point differential in the league at -41.When the going got tough in Week 3 against Kansas City, the Ravens looked overmatched.

The final score (33-28) looks like Baltimore almost pulled out a road win in arguably the NFL’s toughest road environment.But, in reality, the game was not that close. KC opened up a 23-6 lead at halftime and was up 30-13 at the end of three.The Ravens were still getting the benefit of the doubt heading into a home game with the Browns in Week 4, sitting as roughly touchdown favorites at kickoff. But a Cleveland offense that had looked completely anemic through three games absolutely torched Baltimore’s revamped defense. The Browns racked up 530 total yards, 337 through the air and 293 on the ground.

It’s not surprising that most online sportsbooks have now dropped the Ravens’ AFC Championship odds to around +1400. All this squad has proven so far is that it can dominate bad, potentially historically bad, teams. You can’t win an AFC Championship beating terrible teams. You’re going to have to get through KC or New England, and maybe both.Until the Ravens make a real statement in a game against quality competition, don’t expect their odds to rebound.

The good news is that they will have such an opportunity in Week 7 at Seattle and Week 9 versus New England. The bad news is that, if they play the same way they did in Weeks 3 and 4, they will be on the wrong side of the score-line in those games, as well.