The projections are not in Dylan Bundy’s favor
After a brief rainstorm in Sarasota yesterday morning, Orioles pitchers and catchers participated in their first workouts of the 2019 season. Paired in a group with Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll, Gabriel Ynoa and Nate Karns, right-hander Dylan Bundy got his first tosses in to battery-mate Chance Sisco. In front of a brand-new slow-motion camera, Bundy asked beat reporters if it knew how many pitches he had thrown.
Entering his third full season in the Orioles rotation and depending on how well he pitches this spring, Bundy may be the Opening Day starter for the second year in-a-row. After Tommy John surgery, a strained lat, shoulder calcification and elbow soreness, the former first-round pick from Owasso High School is no longer bound to three innings or less. He’s been unleashed since his first start in the big leagues on July 17, 2016 and he’s widely been considered the ace of the Orioles pitching staff.
While increasing his innings pitched each season since 2016, the number of home runs allowed and ERA have each gone up at alarmingly high rate as well. He gave up 15 home runs in 14 starts in 2016, 26 through 28 starts in 2017 and a league-worst 41 long balls in 31 starts last season. His ERA has blossomed from 4.52 as a starter in 2016 to 5.45 in 2018 and now holds steady at 4.63 for his career.
Surely one of Bundy’s personal goals for the 2019 season will be to limit the long ball and to pitch more effectively. Speaking with the media today after his throwing session, Bundy said one of his main goals is to, “make it out of Spring Training healthy.” He continued, “That’s for the season as well. [You want to] make your starts every five days and always go out there and contribute to a win.” Last season, he didn’t contribute much on the mound though, as he lost a league-leading 16 times and saw career-worst numbers in WHIP (1.410) and FIP (5.17).
One of the longest tenured players in the organization and the longest tenured starting pitcher, Bundy, 26, is prepared to take over a veteran leadership role. “It doesn’t feel like it’s been that long but I guess it has,” Bundy said, as he enters his eighth season with the team. “Being with some of the same group of guys that have been here almost as long as I have, we kind of share that same feeling of being back down here in Sarasota, Florida and welcoming all of the new faces we have on the team now and excited to work with them.”
As Bundy prepares to focus on his leadership role and a better 2019 campaign, he may want to steer clear of the projections put out on him. I reviewed seven different projection websites and none of them listed Bundy’s 2019 ERA to be lower than 4.55. Fantasy Baseball Writer and Analysist, Derek Carty, shows Bundy making 31 starts and logging 183 innings this season. It gets worse from there. Baseball Reference predicts a 4.58 ERA, Baseball Prospectus says 4.62, FantasyPros.com shows a 4.80 and each Steamer and Steamer600 show a 4.87 ERA.
Whether or not Bundy will be the ace of the staff for 2019 and beyond is to be determined. With an ERA consistently in the mid-4 range, it’s hard to be considered an ace. However, Bundy may be able to attribute a bounce-back year to the introduction of new analytical tools focused on player development.
Under team control until the 2022 season, Bundy and the Orioles avoided arbitration this winter, settling on a contract worth $2.8MM for the 2019 season. He’s been considered as a possible trade piece to bring in more prospects for the team’s rebuild, but he may need to have a stellar first-half in order for opposing teams to consider a deal.
