Let’s take a look at some early line movement of NFL Week 7 matchups…
(For odds reference, I am using scoresandodds.com)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5, was -6
As most football fans saw this past Sunday, the Steelers handed the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season (which cashed as one of my Week 6 picks!). I’m a little confused by the move towards the Bengals here though. I understand that this is a division matchup and that the Bengals have played well, especially offensively the past few weeks. But I think this Steelers team is just hitting their stride. I’d even go as far to say that they have the most talented set of skill players in the league… Don’t listen the “washed up” talk from QB Ben Roethlisberger. He still has it. I’ve heard that there is more money expected to come in on the Bengals so this line may continue to trend down, in which case I like the Steelers even more.
New Orleans Saints -6, was -4.5 @ Green Bay Packers
Let’s start off with the look-ahead line BEFORE Packers QB Aaron Rodegrs was hurt… Green Bay was -6.5 point favorites. Give me a second to take my socks off and do that math. Yup, that adds up to a 12.5 point swing.
I’m sorry, folks. No player in the National Football League is worth 12.5 points! Now the question is how will Rodger’s backup, Brett Hundley play this Sunday? Well, Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy doesn’t want to hear from anyone who thinks Hundley isn’t ready. Keep in mind, Hundley has been under the tutelage of Aaron Rodgers for 2-plus years and this isn’t the first time the Packers have gone an extended period of time without Rodgers.
On the other side of this is the fact that the Saints almost blew a FIVE TOUCHDOWN LEAD on Sunday.
If this line gets to Saints -7, I’ll be taking the Packers for sure.
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots -3, was -4.5
Ah the ole’ Super Bowl rematch. This should be a good one on Sunday Night. You’ve got the Atlanta Falcons coming into Foxborough after blowing a 17 point halftime lead to the Miami Dolphins. Probably pretty angry. Probably having circled this matchup against the Patriots for quite a while now…
And you’ve got the Patriots, who barely, and I mean barely hung onto a win versus the New York Jets. New England’s defensive woes have gotten somewhat better. But it’s time for bettors to realize that this isn’t the same Patriots defense as it has been years before.
Obviously, the betting market has made at least a small adjustment as money has come flowing in on the Falcons, taking this number from -4.5 to -3. I tend to agree with that and would be comfortable taking the field goal.
Have any early Week 7 leans you’re looking at? Let me know on Twitter @therealMattDiehl