The theme for NFL Week 6 in Las Vegas Sportsbooks is chalk. And lots of it.
With four spreads currently at 10 points or higher, we’ll learn a lot about which heavily favored teams can live up to the hype. Here are my Week 6 NFL picks against the spread…
(For reference, I am using scoresandodds.com for current odds.)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers -3 O/U 45
Pick: Under 45
These Thursday night games always have something funky about them. Last Thursday, the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a total of 56. The game finished 19-14. Many players have talked about how quick of a turnaround a Thursday game is for them both physically and mentally. You’ve got a new game plan to learn, you’ve got to prepare for the other team’s teams game plan and all the while you’re on just three days rest.
I’m expecting a pretty slow and low scoring game here (might even be tempted to take the 1st half under). Both defenses have been playing well and both QB’s are due for some regression here after putting up some big time stats in last week’s games. 45 points is too much for me in this spot.
New England Patriots -9 vs. New York Jets O/U 47.5
Pick: New York Jets +9
Look, I know what you’re saying… “But it’s the Jets.” “Belichick and Brady will get the Pats right.” And I’m not saying that won’t happen. But the Jets are playing some good football. Winning one game in the NFL is hard, but winning three games in a row is even harder. In case you forgot, the Jets beat the “high and mighty” Jaguars 11 days ago. Todd Bowles is a darn good coach and the Jets have historically given Tom Brady and the Patriots fits.
This line was at 10.5 at one point and I would have loved that. If public bettors start to slam the Pats on Sunday before kickoff the line may get back up to 10. Regardless, I like the Jets to stay within 9.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -3 O/U 43
Pick: Rams +3
I’m not sold on the Jaguars. As you can probably tell. I DO think that Leonard Fournette is the real deal. I DON’T think that Rams defensive coordinator will let Fournette run all over the Rams D. Keep in mind, Fournette is also listed as questionable with an ankle injury, as of today (10/12). Oh and so is they’re backup RB Chris Ivory. Oh Blake Bortles, how we have missed you!
Who knows what the Pittsburgh Steelers game plan was about last week. They threw the ball 50+ times against a Jacksonville run defense that has given up the 2nd most rushing yards IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE! Cue Todd Gurley licking his lips.
As I mentioned earlier this week, the Rams were a dollop of stick em on WR Cooper Kupp’s gloves away from a win vs. the Seattle Seahawks. I think the Rams win this game outright so feel free to lay a little on the moneyline too.
Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens -6 O/U 39
Pick: Over 39
The world (or the people brave enough to watch the entirety of Monday Night Football) saw the debut of Mitchell Trubisky this week and I have to say, I was impressed. If it weren’t for some shady penalties early, Da Bears probably would have won that game. Trubisky looked really mobile and unleashed (he’s got a missile, BTW) some great throws throughout the game. So with the combination of their decent ground game and a mobile QB, I look for the Bears to be able to put up some points against a banged up Ravens defense.
I’d like to think Ravens offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and QB Joe Flacco may have got into a rhythm last week vs. the Oakland Raiders. The Bears have a couple linebackers banged up and are middle of the pack in terms of rushing and passing defense. I can definitely see this game being close late (I lean Bears +6, slightly) around the 20-20 or 23-20 range. And guess what, 40 or 43 is more than 39 and that means you cash.
Let me know which picks you like and what picks you don’t on Twitter @realMattDiehl