Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman fight preview

by Leroy Travers · July 19, 2019

In 2019, its rare that a boxing pay-per-view event creates a buzz. The sport just doesn’t have the flash and draw that it once did. This Saturday, however, boxing gets the rare spot on center stage as one of its biggest stars, Manny Pacquiao takes on undefeated Kieth Thurman in this battle for Welterweight supremacy in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Manny Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 knockouts) is the WBA “regular” Welterweight champion. At 40 years old, the “Pac-Man” keeps plugging along, having defeated Adrien Broner in a unanimous decision. Going into that fight, Broner was 3-3-1 in his last seven fights. Thurman is sure to give Pacquiao more resistance Saturday night. Even at 40 years old, Manny Pacquiao is considered to be a top five Welterweight, even though this will be only his second fight in the last 32 months.

Manny Pacquiao keys to victory:

Use the corners and ropes. Thurman likes to use the entire ring and move in and out, delivering powerful punches. Pacquiao will need to neutralize this by cutting off the ring and keeping Thurman against the ropes.
Rely on conditioning. Even at 40 years of age, Manny Pacquiao has unbelievable conditioning and stamina. Thurman starts off strong, typically winning the first half of fights before cruising into a victory. If Pacquiao can hang in for the first half, winning two or three rounds, then punish Thurman in the championship rounds, he will win the decision.
Stack up the volume. Manny Pacquiao is a volume puncher, as opposed to Thurman’s recent one punch at a time strategy. This draws the eyes of the judges and can help Manny on the scorecard.

Keith Thurman (29-0, 22 knockouts) is the WBA “Super” Welterweight Champion and considered one of the hardest punchers in the division. Coming in at ten years younger than his opponent, Thurman was a rising star in the Welterweight division before an elbow injury followed by a hand injury cost him almost two years. Thurman was inactive from March of 2017 until returning in January of 2019 to defeat Josesito Lopez by majority decision. A win over an all-time great would announce to the world that Keith Thurman is all the way back.

Keith Thurman keys to victory:

Set the pace. Thurman likes to start fast and win the rounds in the first half of fights. He will need to build a sizable lead on Pacquiao as the veteran will not simply let him cruise to victory in the championship rounds. If Thurman starts fast and keeps up the pace, he can start to expose Pacquiao’s age and pull of a decisive victory.
Stay off the ropes. We discussed earlier Thurman’s propensity to use the entire ring. Pacquiao will counter that by putting Thurman into the ropes. This would allow Pacquiao to stay active and out-punch Thurman towards victory. Thurman needs to stay off the ropes, hit and move, and try to catch Manny with straight shots to the head and body. Pacquiao does not get knocked out, so Thurman wants to win this on the scorecards, even if his resume boasts 22 knockouts.
Box at a distance. Thurman will look to stay outside and catch Pacquiao coming in or land hard counters to the Pac-Man. Despite his boasts of brawling with Pacquiao, the Thurman camp has to know that doing so would be a mistake.

This is one of the toughest fights to call of this magnitude in quite some time with many experts being split on who will win. Pacquiao actually opened up as a +120 underdog, before bettors moved him to a -165 favorite. Much of that has to do with name recognition and many Vegas insiders are loving the value of Thurman at +140.

My take: This is a fight of experience and age versus inexperience and youth. On one hand Pacquiao knows how to handle big fights and loves when his opponents underestimate him. There will come a point, however, when the Pac-Man becomes old, and sometimes that happens overnight. Thurman has showed a lot of confidence and bravado coming into the contest and now needs to back it up. He was less than impressive in his last outing, but is at a prime age and has a nice size and reach advantage. Ultimately, Pacquiao just knows how to win. He will cut the ring off and stack up punches for all 12 rounds, something that Thurman has a tough time doing. Manny Pacquiao wins a controversial split decision.

The main card is scheduled to begin at 9:00 P.M. eastern time on FoxSports Pay-Per-View for $74.99. The under-card includes the following fights: